Nigeria’s dollar crunch adds to fuel crisis — FT.com

 

Refinery woes, currency controls and militant attacks combine to prolong acute shortage

Source: Nigeria’s dollar crunch adds to fuel crisis — FT.com

Inadequate infrastructure means that, despite being Africa’s top oil exporter, Nigeria has to import fuel putting downward pressure on the value of it’s currency, the Naira (see Chart 2 below). Value-added increases when oil is refined to become something more useful, in this case fuel, so the $’s received for each barrel of oil Nigeria exports is worth less than the $’s Nigeria has to pay for the same volume of refined oil, leading to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves (see Chart 1 below).

It is difficult to see how this cycle will end. If the value of the Naira continues to fall, the price of refined oil in Naira terms will continue to rise, further depleting foreign exchange reserves and accelerating the Naira’s depreciation.

There are several solutions, central bank intervention to revalue the Naira, but they need, already dwindling, foreign exchange reserves in order to manipulate the market price for the Naira. Investment in infrastructure, a fiscal supply-side policy, to reduce the reliance on refined oil imports is an alternative, but oil accounts for 90% of Nigeria’s export revenue and, subsequently, a significant proportion of government revenue. The price of oil has collapsed and with it government revenue, a classic example of the dangers of over-reliance on a primary commodity, prone to price volatility. The fall in foreign exchange reserves, the value of the Naira and an increasing budget deficit will make lenders nervous and will lead to an increase in the yield on government borrowing, put simply, the interest rate on government bonds will have to rise to offset the greater risk, increasing government expenditure on debt repayments.

Clearly, these options are not presently viable, but the second should have been enacted when the oil price was high and export earnings plentiful, however, corruption, some $16bn in government oil receipts is unaccounted for in the last year alone, has meant that infrastructure remains undeveloped.

A further consequence of the falling value of the Naira is that despite global oil prices falling, Nigerians have to pay more for petrol at the pump. To combat rising petrol prices the Nigerian government have imposed price controls, however, this has resulted in several-hour long queues and a rise in hidden market activity. Subsequently, Nigerians either face having to pay extortionate prices or waste valuable time queueing. Ultimately, output is lost and Nigeria’s economy suffers.

Nigeria’s relatively new president has a tough task on his hands.

Chart 1

Chart 2

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Minimum wage increases by 20p to £6.70 per hour – ITV News

Courtesy of Harry Gould – L6 article of the week

A 20p increase in the hourly national minimum wage has comes into effect on Thursday bringing the new adult rate up to £6.70 an hour.The new rate comes into force ahead of the planned national living wage of £7.20 and hour for over-25s from next April.The statutory figure for 18-20 year olds has risen by 17p to £5.30 an hour and pay for under 18s has increased by 8p to £3.87 with apprenticeship rates rising to £3.30.The government says the 3% rise in the adult rate is the biggest real increase since 2006 and moves the minimum wage closer to the average wage than ever before.But TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady said the increase is “welcome but hardly cause for euphoria.”Meanwhile, a report by the Resolution Foundation found the proportion of workers earning the legal minimum is set to more than double over the next five years as a result of the national living wage.The think-tank said women and older workers are particularly likely to be affected.Business Secretary Sajid Javid said: “As a one-nation Government we are making sure that every part of Britain benefits from our growing economy and today more than 1.4 million of Britain’s lowest-paid workers will be getting a well-deserved pay rise.”

Source: Minimum wage increases by 20p to £6.70 per hour – ITV News

China and the UK

There has been much attention given over to China in recent weeks, following the visit of President XI and the signing of many deals between China and the UK, not least in the energy sector where China (and France) will be financing and largely building a generation of nuclear power plants in the UK. The Times commented that it will not be long before a Midlands UK businessman or woman could breakfast on Chinese cereal (Weetabix), travel to London on a partly Chinese-financed railway (HS2) for a meeting in a Chinese office development (China has invested heavily in UK property), then make a call home on a Chinese mobile phone and arrange to take the family out to a Chinese owned pizza chain (PizzaExpress) to discuss the possible purchase of a Sunseeker Yacht, a company acquired by China in June 2013. It is also worth noting that Chinese tourists to the UK have doubled between 2009 and 2014 to 185,000 and there were 10,468 Chinese pupils and 87,895 students at UK  independent schools and  universities respectively in 2014. By 2030 the World Bank estimates that 30% of global investment will come from China, the year it is estimated that it will become the world’s largest economy.

Currently China provides 9% of our imports of goods but we are only their 7th biggest source of their imports and our 22nd largest export market for goods so there is considerable potential for growth there. Given the UK Government’s intention to move to a budget surplus and not to borrow even to invest, China provides a valuable source of finance for infrastructure investment.

However all is not well at home with recent Chinese growth figures falling to 6.9% in the third quarter, slightly below the target rate of 7%. There has been some doubt expressed about the validity of this figure and some economists suggest that a true figure would be significantly lower, not least because nominal growth was only 6.2% implying a 0.7% deflation in China over the period which some commentators suggest is inaccurate. An alternative measure looks at statistics for electricity, bank lending and rail cargo which suggests growth of between 3% – 4%. Such discrepancies put the UK’s recent fall in GDP growth to 0.5% into perspective.